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Home > Logbook > Previous entries > Is the labour market enjoying its own Indian summer?


Is the labour market enjoying its own Indian summer?

In September, Canada’s job market still reflected the robust strength of the national economy. According to Stats Can, the unemployment rate dipped 5.9%, slipping under the 6% mark for the first time since November 1974. This decline resulted from the drop in the number of unemployed workers (-22,000) combined with an increase in the labour force (+29,200).

Another sign that Canada’s economy is on track: the number of older workers (55 and over) was up (+23,000). This confirms the observation of Montréal’s Centre Eurêka, an employment centre for those 40 and up, which has noted that between 20% and 40% of retirees return to work within two years of leaving the job market.

Not surprisingly, the service sector was largely responsible for the growth of Canada’s labour market (+60,700), which was undermined by the goods sector, with the elimination of 9,500 positions. Given the strength of the Canadian dollar, it comes as no surprise that manufacturing was one of the sectors that suffered (-3,200). More mysteriously, the transportation and warehousing sector was untouched by the woes of the manufacturing industry – in fact, it gained 12,700 jobs in September!

Job creation was up slightly in Quebec (+4,300) and, contrary to all expectations, Alberta fared only a little better (+4,600). Given the small size of its population, Saskatchewan turned in a surprisingly strong performance (+7,000), but Ontario stole the show, generating almost 60% of all new positions in Canada in September (+29,700). The strike at General Motors south of the border could nevertheless bring down the curtain next month by interrupting the supply of parts to Ontario’s automobile assembly plants.

In Quebec, not only is the labour market data disappointing but the new positions are only part time, meaning they are somewhat precarious and offer poorer working conditions. While 19,800 part-time jobs were created, 15,500 full-time positions were lost. Quebec’s unemployment rate nevertheless dropped to a level unseen in thirty-three years, dipping to 6.9% in September.

While 15,600 positions were eliminated in Toronto, 7,900 jobs were added in Montréal’s census metropolitan area (CMA), with full-time positions making a good showing (+5,600). The city’s unemployment rate dropped by 3 percentage points, from 7.4% to 7.1%. Overall, Montréal’s unemployment rate is 7% for 2007, easily beating the level seen in 2006 (8.4%) and in 2005 (8.7%).

With 4,600 new jobs, Montréal manufacturers seem to have pulled a rabbit out of their hat, and the construction industry also managed to create some 4,000 jobs. But winter is just around the corner, and the value of building permits issued in the CMA plummeted by almost 12% in August, so this rosy picture may not last.