As the city emerges from its deep freeze and the first hopeful signs of summer appear, it’s time to ask ourselves how Montréal’s tourism season is shaping up. One good indicator is the hotel occupancy rate. Since the SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) outbreak in Canada in 2003, which prompted more than one traveler to stay home with a good book, Montréal’s hotel occupancy rate has picked up, stabilizing at around 67%. In 2007, 67.1% of rooms were occupied on average; the busiest month was September, when the occupancy rate was 81.6%. During this period, room costs remained relatively stable at an average of $138.82 per night, down from $140.31 in 2006 and $139.54 in 2005.

But there is good reason to wonder what the coming season will hold. Quebec’s tourism industry is a major economic sector, accounting for 61,300 jobs and $2.4 billion of gross domestic product. But it faces its share of challenges. First of all, in terms of staffing, it is known for its high turnover rate and its often low wages. The fact that the Canadian economy is doing well and the unemployment rate is the lowest it’s been in thirty years represents a challenge in itself: low-paying, demanding positions are increasingly difficult to fill.

According to a 2006 study by Tourisme Montréal, Americans account for 18% of our tourism market and 25% of tourist dollars spent in the metropolis. In absolute figures, we are talking about 1.3 million U.S. visitors, who spend $595 million on food, accommodation, and other purchases. Not surprisingly, aside from Quebecers and other Canadians, our neighbours to the South represent the largest group of visitors to Montréal.

In some respects, the metropolis is thus dependent on this tourism source, so the U.S. real estate crisis and the anticipated slowdown of the U.S. economy are anything but good news for our tourism industry.

But this isn’t the only cause for concern: the price of a barrel of oil has gone through the roof, with negative repercussions on the cost of a fill-up. Considering that almost 65% of Americans travel to Montréal by car, higher transportation costs will naturally affect their vacation budgets and make them think twice before leaving home.

Last but not least, our tourism industry has clearly been hurt by the strength of the loony. Last fall, it reached parity against the greenback and has stayed there ever since. In comparison, it was worth just 65 U.S. cents when it began its dizzying climb in 2003. A 50% increase! Shopping in Montréal just isn’t the bargain it used to be.

Despite all this, there is good news for Montréal’s tourism industry. Since November 7, 2007, when it peaked at 74 Euro cents, the loony has tumbled to just 63 cents. This augurs well for tourism originating in Europe – and especially France, since the French represent 26.5% of “international” tourists, meaning tourists from countries other than Canada and the United States. We can even expect their numbers to swell this year, as they take advantage of Québec City’s 400th anniversary celebrations to visit their North American cousins – and, if they do, they will certainly pass through Montréal.